Play A Hand With The Triple Threat (Results & Comments)

[grandgnu]

PRE-FLOP: There's one MP limper for 20 chips, everyone else has folded. This is the first hand of a $10+1 MTT, I don't expect a ton of great players.

I have pocket Queens and I'm in late position. You don't get these hands all that often, so I don't want to squander them and just win the blinds. But I also don't want to go up against too many opponents. Ideally, I'd like to be heads-up or against two opponents. With only one limper and the blinds left to fight through, I like my chances.

I have position and opt to raise it to 80 chips. A raise to 60 chips might get called by all three players, and a raise of 100-120 will likely scare out weaker holdings that I'd like to have go against my strong hand.

After I raise, it's folded to the limper, whom I have position on, who calls.

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]


Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Alright, I hit my set, that is friggin awesome. But man, is this board hella coordinated. Luckily, I'm heads-up, so I can't go seeing monsters in every closet and worrying. He checks to me.

With 210 in the pot and a strong hand, I could bet 150-200 or even overbet the pot, try and take it down now. Instead, I opt to bet just 120. This means he has to call 120 to win 330, which gives him 2.75:1 odds on his money.

If he is on a flush or straight draw, he isn't getting the odds he needs to make the call (unless you look at implied odds). In addition, I'm not worried about him just yet. I figure to be ahead the majority of the time on this flop, and my betting is an attempt to make it affordable (yet still a slight mistake) for him to play with holdings I beat (which represent the majority of cards he might have at this point).

In addition, while I'm trying to get more chips out of him with my premium holding, I also recognize I do not have the nuts and there are plenty of draws that can hurt me. And this early in such a low buy-in event, there are plenty of players willing to go to the felt on these draws. I don't want to create such a large pot that I can't get away from it.

He calls my bet and we see a turn of 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Once again, he checks. The 7 doesn't figure to have helped his hand, unless he indeed had two diamonds. With 450 in the pot, I opt to bet 200. I figure if I'm ahead, I'm probably a 3-1 favorite. My bet does give him odds to call. But, if I'm behind (if he indeed does have the flush, or was slow-playing an A/J on the flop), then I once again avoid making a pot too large to get away from.

So, after my bet there's 650 chips in the pot. He check-raises me an additional 340, bringing the total to 1,190. Well, that's a bit disconcerting, to say the least. But what does it mean? Is it a milking bet? Is it a feeler bet, an attempt to take the pot down now, perhaps with the naked Ace of diamonds? I'm not quite sure at this point.

On the flop I was 90-95% certain I was ahead of my opponent, but this turn has me worried. Still, I have to call 340 to win 1,190, so with 3.5:1 odds, I feel I have enough redraws through the river to make the call (if the board pairs, or if another diamond falls, I'll have 2nd nut flush)

I don't feel at this point I can fold the hand, I'm too strong with too many outs to just get out now, and there's too much money in the pot. Plus, I will still have position on Villian when the river hits, so I may get checked to, depending upon what falls.

I don't feel I can raise all-in, because Villian will certainly call me with any hand that has me beat, and might also call with pair and flush draw/straight draw hands, leaving me no way to get out if the river is a scare card. So, by calling, I can end the betting right there and prevent anymore raising, and still have half my starting stack through to the river, where I can make a decision.

The river is the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and villian pushes. There is just no way I can call this bet. He just needs any Ace to have me beat, and plenty of players early in tournaments will play any ace as if it's gold. A 9 has me beat too, although that's not necessarily what I put him on, and of course the flush as well.

I opt to fold and go on to finish 97th out of 641 players, with the top 63 making the money.

He of course, did not show his hand. But I would put him on something along the lines of the following:

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

etc.

A lot of others suggested larger bets, to try and protect my hand and push the other player out. My line was that I felt I was way ahead of my opponents holding the majority of the time pre-flop and post-flop, and I wanted to try and maximize the chips he'd give me on my good hand, but also avoid building a pot so huge that I couldn't fold when obviously a small favorite to win by the river.

I treaded a bit more carefull post-flop, in an attempt to squeeze more chips out of him, but also to avoid losing my whole stack on the first hand.

Let's say I do it like some of the others suggested, pre-flop I make it 100 to go, he calls, so the pot is now 230 chips.

The scary flop hits, he checks, I make a pot-sized bet, he calls. Now there is 690 chips in the pot. The turn card hits, he checks again. Now I lead out for something like 400 chips and he check-raises me to 900.

On that turn, my hand is just too strong and I have a number of outs, and the pot is too large to get away from. So I wind up having invested 730 chips, and he's check-raised it to 900. So if I call another 500 chips, there's just no way for me to fold on the river.

In the actual hand, with his turn check-raise, I had invested 740 chips, but got to see the river without paying anything additional.

I was really spurred on to relate this hand after the Gigabet hand where he had A/K on the A/K/J flop and was up against the Q/10. Those way ahead, way behind hands can be pretty difficult, and it can be hard to get away from such a strong holding.

But, I avoided going broke and gave myself an opportunity to continue playing and try and recover, and went deep, although missed in cashing (perhaps if the outcome of that hand had been different, I would have had the momentum to make the final table, but such is poker)

Thanks to everyone for playing along and providing their thoughts and advice. I didn't mean to steal any limelight from the Hand With The Masters series, I've just been waiting to see another one come up and it hasn't, so I figured I'd fill the void for a day at least.