I'm Lost - A few different options ...

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he steals with 50% of his hands -- i don't think we can put him on anything on the flop. he will only flopped a pair 33% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
He might, statistically, only flop a pair 33% of the time on a random board, but on a 89J board I think that percentage would be much higher. The top 50% of hands (according to pokerstove, roughly 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o) includes pretty much every pair, every ace, every two cards 8 or higher. I'm not going to take the time to count all the combos, but I'd wager it's more than 33%.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly! The 33% is an average of all flops. This one is way more likely to have hit our opponent, given his hand range.

Surf