Isolating @ the bubble

[bmxreed36]

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It'd be terrible if he called with Q9. 88 doesn't fare that well against four overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]you're over 50% to double through to ~4500. even if shortie survives you have command.

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Not if the button calls, then you're more like 35% to double through.

If the button calls you with overcards it's very very bad for you. You're so unbelievably wrong on this point it's not even funny.

The only reason I can think to push here is if the button will interpret that as AA/KK and lay down anything he has. But then that makes UTG's equity shoot through the roof if he has two overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]the short stacks cards don't matter. if the button willingly puts in money as a dog, that is good for you.

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I know this is simplifying things, but if you use SNG Power Tools, put yourself as pushing in the SB with 88 and the BB's calling range at exactly Q9o, it's always gonna be a +EV push. The interesting thing is that the EV/no call is always greater than EV/call even if you mess around with the stack sizes a little and size of the blinds meaning that although it's not bad if he calls, it's actually a little better if he doesn't.