Counter-Intuitive Tournament Plays

[Chimera]

Overall, I enjoyed this article. I'm somewhat fascinated by the idea that it is sometimes correct to fold in a tournament even though you know you have the best of it. I think this is one of the main things that makes tournament poker so much different from "normal" cash game poker.

Anyway, while I agree with the general point that you're trying to make, I think that there's a problem with the example that you use. This hand was actually discussed at some length a while back on the WPT forum, and the general consensus seemed to be that folding the TT was correct. I disagreed then, and I still do.

The problem is that you say that Carlos would push there with an "unknown range of hands". In fact, I believe that his actions clearly demonstrate that he would push with any 2 cards. Here's why:

When he pushes with the A5, he's doing so with absolutely no expectation of getting called by a worse hand. He's only pushing because he expects his opponent to almost always fold - he knows that if he gets called, he'll be a big underdog.

In other words, his decision to move in is based completely on fold equity. Therefore, what cards he's holding becomes irrelevant, since his opponent would be just as likely to fold if Carlos moved in with 72, etc.

Therefore, if Carlos's true range of hands consists of any 2 cards, then the TT would be a 3-to-1 favorite. Substituting these numbers into the equation from the article, we get:

.75(753,000) + .25(250,000) = 627,250 for calling vs. 606,000 for folding

Seems like a pretty clear call, especially since calling also increases your chances of winning that cool WPT chip set. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]