Pump this Draw?

[lautzutao]

[ QUOTE ]
lautzutao - I think it's very close.

I don't think you are ahead here. If MP2 has what he/she is representing, (a set of queens), then MP2 figures to do best at the showdown, on the average. However, you are getting three to one fresh money odds and have eight outs (non-pairing clubs). Unless the board pairs on the turn, you will have two chances to catch one of the eight outs. As simulated, if we give MP2 a set (QdQhXY) and if we give UTG an open end straight draw (JhThZW) and if we make all CO's cards random, then you have about a 26% equity. (With three opponents, you need better than 25% to initiate fresh money inot the pot).

Thus from an odds standpoint, you're not far from correct whether you raise or not. Now the question is, "What effect would a raise have on your opponents on the next two betting rounds, if the turn is a non-pairing club?"

You do a tiny bit better on this betting round by raising, but I think you might do a even better on the next two betting rounds by not raising.

Thus I think you should not raise here. But it's very close.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but I have them trapped now. And next round I wouldn't have had the edge I have now if I hit a blank on the turn. Even if I hit my draw I'm probably not going to get the opportunity I got here to trap these guys for bets.

I didn't think my equity was as close to neutral as I saw it after the fact, so you're right here. I didn't factor in villian having a set which is a HUGE error on my part, and something I'm going to have to learn to pick up on. But if I'm guaranteed 30% equity here, or there were another player in this pot, this is far and away the correct play yes?