50-100nl. Evaluating Flush Potential in Re-Raised Pot

[wins_pot]

My intuition is that the probability that I'm facing a flush on the turn after his pot bet is about 10%. Does this seem about right? LFISGD is, of course, extreme LAG. So am I. So against some players, certain flushes (3h6h, 7h3h, and other low suited cards) become unlikely given a pre-flop raise. Even against LFISGD, these cards are unlikely to be played in the face of a re-raise. KhTh, KhJh and the like are trap hands, especially against a player who will re-raise with anything, and will similarly be thrown away after a re-raise. That leaves only AhKh, Ah2h, 5h6h, 7h8h, 10hjh as likely holdings. Does anyone place the prob of a flush here at significantly higher than 10%? Some players are so LAG that they are always going to get paid off with set over set --- LFISGD is such a player. -Brandon

and #9173942-4654 at Bhipak (No Limit Hold'em)
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Started at 25/Oct/05 17:59:56

BrandonAdams is at seat 5 with $41621.
LFISGD is at seat 6 with $20166.50.
Green Plastic is at seat 7 with $10000 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 6.

LFISGD posts the small blind of $50.
BrandonAdams posts the big blind of $100.

BrandonAdams: 2s 2h
LFISGD: -- --

Pre-flop:

LFISGD raises to $200. BrandonAdams re-raises to
$600. LFISGD calls.

Flop (board: Qh 9h 2c):

BrandonAdams bets $1200. LFISGD raises to $4800.
BrandonAdams calls.

Turn (board: Qh 9h 2c 4h):

BrandonAdams checks. LFISGD bets $10800.
BrandonAdams goes all-in for $36221. LFISGD goes
all-in for $14766.50. BrandonAdams is returned
$21454.50 (uncalled).

River (board: Qh 9h 2c 4h 6c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

BrandonAdams shows 2s 2h.
BrandonAdams has 2s 2h Qh 9h 2c: three deuces.
LFISGD shows 9d Qd.
LFISGD has 9d Qd Qh 9h 6c: two pair, queens and nines.


Hand #9173942-4654 Summary:

$.50 is raked from a pot of $40333.
BrandonAdams wins $40332.50 with three deuces.
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