Play the odds or play with your gut instinct?

[locutus2002]

Always play with your gut instinct. I don't think anyone can become a great player by just playing the odds, and I believe a strong instinct can be developed through reliance.

Gut instinct is about reading your opponent's hand, and predicting his behaviour, it has nothing to do with guessing what card will come off the deck.

Your friend needs to UNDERSTAND the difference between the outcome and the hand, which is the basis for expected value.