Flop a joint, river pairs board

[FreakDaddy]

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Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

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This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand.

I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits.

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Well, hero is in small blind. It's very concievable that he has two pair or a smaller set. Villian doesn't know he has the proverable nuts (7,8).

1) On the turn, if someone is still betting pretty strong, you can make a decent judgement that you will get paid off.
2) Texture of the flop says hero has to have either two pair, or set. While JJ is remote.
3) Villian is likely ahead.

Villian isn't calling thinking, I'm definately beat, I better pair the board. If he doesn't fill up, I think he just calls the river, or if it's checked, he makes a 1/2 pot bet.