99 vs 65/11/2

[Watain]

Fold.

If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time:

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQs = 4

4/31 = 13%.

13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice.

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Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo.

Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8
In front of: AQo = 16

16/43 = 37% !!

This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down.

The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5.

EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1.

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Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range.

Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]