Does this move have + EV? or am I spewing?

golfboy7 · #1 10-21-2005, 01:25 AM

No reads really, turn bettor just sat down, small blind is tight with 14% vpip.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

My thoughts when the 10 hit on the turn:

'why is this guy betting here? If he has the 10, he's going to scare everyone out by the bet. I raised the flop and i'm to his immediate left, so if he's even semi-knowledgable, he knows he can count on me for a turn continuation bet. And if that's the case, he'd be much better of trapping the blinds with a check raise.'

So I deemed this as either a donk bet, where he thought I was raising my flush draw on the flop or just a plain old bluff.

My thoughts on the river:

After both blinds called the turn bet from a NEW aggressor, I kind of have to figure one of them for a 7 right? So my immediate thoughts when the J hit were 'I hope MP1 bets. I probably have MP1 beat and the blinds, facing 2BB's with 2 overs on the river may muck their better hands.'

Thoughts?