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I'm trying to measure luckiness between several independent events. I found a good way of determining luck on a series event that has a probability of p.
Suppose p(n,x,w) = The probability of having x wins in n trials with the odds of winning an individual trial as w. I define the "luck" of having z wins out of n trials is SUM(p(n,i,w),i=0 to x-1) + .5 * p(n,z,w). So for flipping a fair coin twice, Luck(0,2,.5) = .125 Luck(1,1,.5) = .5 Luck(2,0,.5) = .875 And lets suppose I have another event where i win if I roll a 5 or a 6 on a dice. For 2 trials: Luck(0,2,.33) = .2224 Luck(1,1,.33) = .6660 Luck(2,0,.33) = .9436 Now suppose I roll a dice twice and win both times, and flip a coin and lose both times. What would be the best way to determine my "luck" of the 2 combined events? |
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