Stealing from other forums...

[detruncate]

I like the turn check, and my instinct was to bet/fold the river. There are several 3-betting hands that might be behind us, but I'm not sure they find a bet on the river. Is Villain more likely to bet when behind or call a bet? Also, should we worry about being bluff raised, and if so how much?

I'm waffling between bet/folding and check/calling. I don't love check/folding on the face of it, but I haven't completely discounted it either.

Hero might be raising a bit light, so it's conceivable that Villain could open up his 3-betting range a bit. But capping OOP vs a decent player would seem to suggest a reasonable amount of strength on Hero's part.

Therefore, how to we play it if we're Villain and are checked to on the turn holding a PP < K? Say, TT.

I'm going to be tempted to bet this turn. But is Hero going to check/fold KK or QQ or JJ often enough? His check could easily be a move to avoid being pushed off a hand he wants to show down. I don't love firing at it, but the other options seem to be giving up or bluff raising the river.

So, let's assume we bet the turn like Villain did and get called. Do we fire again on the river? It seems to be the only chance to pick up the pot, but the only capping hands we have a chance to fold are KK and JJ (and not everyone caps JJ, especially OOP).

A better PP doesn't have odds to call the turn and fold the river, so Hero's call seems to suggest that he's planning to show down. So how much does the Q change things? QQ and AQ now beat Hero, which means he's running out of hands he's ahead of. Only a smaller PP, really, unless Villain 3-bet with something very strange.

This is assuming that Villain is thinking things through, of course. An aggressive player might just fire at the river since giving up is not acceptable when they feel there's at least some chance of taking down the pot. But how does it affect our river play if we're Hero?

On the face of it, a reasonable Villain would seem likely to opt for a free showdown most often after being called on the turn with the hands we're ahead of unless we're getting into deeper levels of thinking. But will he call a bet? I'd think not since it seems even worse than betting. In fact, it seems that a river donk on Hero's part just opens him up to a bluff raise for little good reason since he can't expect to be called profitably unless Villain calls way too much in general. It might be less clear in blind steal situation, but as is Villain is probably only calling AA, QQ, AK, AQ.

Another stupidly long post. Oh well. I think the line used by Hero is better than bet/calling. But is a check/fold better?

An aggressive Villain might bluff simply because he knows we know that it's a bad idea and might therefore be planning to fold KK or JJ. This only really matters if Villain is worried about splitting or is on a smaller PP. It all seems to come down to player reads and pot size. I'm not sure the pot is large enough to justify trying to pick off a bluff unless Villain is generally over-aggressive or loves bluffing, but I wouldn't think it's likely to be a huge mistake.

I guess I check/call vs an aggressive/bluffy opponent, check/fold otherwise, bet/fold vs a TAG who pays off way too much and is fairly straight forward.