#13
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tiny edge
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believe I have a very slight edge [/ QUOTE ] You don't...unless he pays you the $20 for EVERY flop (including the ones where you pay him $2000) -- then you'd have a 9 cent/flop edge. Otherwise, as proven above, your edge is 19 cent/flop lower than that. Frame the prop bet instead as paying preflop for every chance to hit $2K. HOWEVER, I bet that even that prop bet is -EV because shuffling is not 100% random -- cards that were together are at least a little more likely to stay close together & the players throughout each hand are more likely to muck similar cards at similar times than totally different cards at different times. |
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