A Theoretical Question about Isolationism

[Arnfinn Madsen]

Is there allowed for a non-American to express his view on this too? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think American isolationism would be very good now for the next decades (excluding trade). The main reason basically that the image of US and its troops is destroyed in most regions, it is seen as an aggressor (even though intentions i.e. in South Korea is otherwise) and thus the US military just seem to put fuel on the fire whereever it sets it foot and this benefits nobody.

The best for the world, would be if it would happen over a decade or so, so that other institutions would be more ready to take over the security responsibility (EU, Arab League, African Union etc.), but no country has the right to demand so, so if US for some reason would go into isolationism quicker the rest of the world should pick up the glove.

As to what would happen, it becomes speculation, but I would think it would differ from region to region. In Europe it would be more or less status quo as EU is powerful enough to provide security to its nations and to the Balkans (despite earlier failure). In Southeast/East Asia it would definately lead to a more powerful China and I guess Taiwan, Philipines and Australia would be worried about it. I don't think it would result in any wars (except maybe an invasion attempt in Taiwan) in this region since China seems to value both peace and trade. In the middle East it would probably gradually lead to the overthrow of some governments and it could also lead to wars. This is a region in which it would be best for it to happen very gradually, but as earlier stated nobody could demand that. I guess Africa is left to its own already so there all the forgotten wars/conflicts would continue. Latin America I have no clue about.

Trade is, on the other hand, a completely different issue. Stop of US trade would be a totally different issue. I have been involved in a few projects that have evaluated risk factors for different critical functions and without revealing to much a sudden stop in imports from US would in many cases lead to much larger negative consequences than most people can grasp. Modern society is built up with a lot of interdependencies and international trade is one of the major ones.