sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop

[illegit]

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Net, his EV is +63 here and good players don’t pass up EV+ opportunities.

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There is no way Farha could have calculated that at the table and been confident enough that he hadn't made an error to say it was barely, but surely, +EV. It's much more likely that he overestimated the payoff for hitting his set by underestimating the EV impact of Curtis's drawing out on the set anyway. In fact, if he knew with 100% certainty that his EV was exactly 63, I think he would have folded before the flop - too much risk for too little gain.

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This post makes no sense. The idea of EV is that the risk is already taken into account in the calculation itself. The calculations greg did TAKE INTO ACCOUNT the fact that his set could get redrawn on. It' STILL +EV. No, he likely didn't do the exact EV calculations, but so? If he was right he was right, whether it was intuition or calculation is highly irrelevant. Also, it would be even larger +EV if Anthony Curtis had 14K instead of 10K (which is how much he had according to his description of the situation). If he has 14K it's far and away an easy call and in fact a fold would be terrible. The risk = 1/22 of your stack (1K), reward = ~14K.