Monte hall problem

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The way that I think it is best explained is by looking at all the possible outcomes.

Assume the prize is behind door 3
If you never switch the outcomes are:
You pick door 1, the host shows you door 2, you stay with door 1. Outcome: lose
You pick door 2, the host shows you door 1, you stay with door 2. Outcome: lose
You pick door 3, the host shows you door 1 or 2, you stay with door 3. Outcome: win

If you always switch the outcomes are:
You pick door 1, the host shows you door 2, you switch to door 3. Outcome: win
You pick door 2, the host shows you door 1, you switch to door 3. Outcome: win
You pick door 3, the host shows you door 1 or 2, you switch to door 1 or 2. Outcome: lose.

Therefore by not switching you win 1/3 times. By switiching you win 2/3.

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This did it for me, i understood all the other answers, even with that deck or cards and the A of spades i felt like there was evidencee for staying or switching..

but all the outcomes written that way.

Top notch, really glad i posted this.


Thanks to those that responded.