mid pair HU vs BB aggressor

detruncate · #8 10-15-2005, 11:08 PM

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: grasshopper is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, grasshopper raises, 3 folds, 1 folds, BB 3-bets, grasshopper calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, grasshopper calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, grasshopper checks.

I might have missed an opportunity to push off a better PP since it's quite likely that I'm on overs when I call the flop. I don't think he checks with an Ace unless he also has a flush draw. He may or may not bet a made flush -- a decent Ace doesn't love giving a free card and I'd have to be a little concerned about being bluff/semibluff c/r'ed by a worse hand so I'm going to have to think about it before I fold. Checking a bigger PP with a flush card seems reasonable.

I have no idea if Villain is thinking any of these things, of course. What I do know is that I can fold to a c/r and might sometimes steal the pot with a bet. On the other hand, I'm not that worried about giving a free card since there aren't many draws that don't include a made hand I'm behind.

1/4 of the time that Villain's on an overpair he also has a flush draw. He can't like check/calling without, but he might just be resigned to showing down and/or betting a 4th flush card on the river. He also might have hit TP or MP on the flop and think that he has some 2-pair outs if behind.

River: (4.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, grasshopper ???

The river doesn't change anything for me. He might find it a bit scary, or he might decide that I'm now less likely to have one -- could be reasonable to assume that I'd raise a safe turn with TP rather than popping the flop. But I doubt that it has much effect on his thinking unless he sees a pair and thinks, "Scary ace and now scary trips. Crap."

The bluffing value of the A is probably gone after the turn check through, or certainly diminished. On the other hand, a flush card will obviously not be a factor any longer, so we don't have to be as efficient in our bluff. On the other other hand Villain no longer has to worry about having to put chips in on two streets.

So... any bettors?