Prior vs Penny

[mrbaseball]

Okay Prior is better. Prior is probably better than anyone. But tonight the runline against him is a play. Florida getting 1.5 runs at +110 is too good to pass on.

Cubs are 22-9 when Prior starts. But 6 of those wins were one run wins meaning Prior and the Cubs giving the 1.5 are only 16-15 (.516). On the flipside The Marlins are 18-15 when Penny starts but 9 of those losses were by only one run. Penny and the Marlins are 27-6 (.818) when getting the 1 and a half runs.

Getting plus money odds on an 81% track record vs. a 51% track record looks mighty appealing to me. Downside is that the Marlins haven't ever really seen much of Prior. In any event I see a lot of value on this play.

I especially like taking the runs in the playoffs because the games are usually tight and big blowouts rare. I'm looking for another close game tonight. Of course with my track record at the 2+2 other gambling forum you may want to bet the Cubs heavy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]