What odds do we need to peel the turn or river to spike a set? (long)

[Augster]

I am really having trouble with this.

Supposedly, if you see all 5 cards, you will spike your set 20% of the time, correct? That's a lot actually.

After the flop, in order to peel the turn going directly by odds, we'd need the pot to be giving us 22.5:1. That's never going to happen. Even with implied odds, you'd need to make up a TON of BB's.

What odds should I be taking to peel the turn? 10 or 11:1 good enough?

Like this:

MP with 33, UTG calls, you call, a couple folds, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, you call, and CO calls. 12 SB.

Flop is A-J-6 Rainbow. Most likely we are behind. It's checked to the button and he bets. SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls. It's 14:1 to us. Hero?

I've been making that laydown consistently. Even getting 10-14:1. What is the cutoff to peel? At 14:1 odds we'd need to eke out 4 BB's to justify our implied odds. At 10:1 we'd need 6 BB's if I'm thinking clearly here.

What I'm getting at is this. Is there a magic pot-odds "justification point" where we should always peel the turn or the river? Like 10:1 or something.

Thanks for the help.

In keeping with this, how'd I play this:

MP1 is 30ish/7 and plays okay.

UTG is TAG at 18/10/2 and plays pretty well.

PartyPoker $.5/$1 Full Ring (10 handed)

Hero is UTG+1 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-flop: UTG Raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 5 folds, UTG calls. (10.5 SB)

The previous orbit me and UTG had just done the same line. He had raised AJs and I had AKos. He didn't cap then, just like he didn't here. I was worried about MP1 cold-calling 3 as he wasn't a fish. Not real aggressive, but never called a raise, let alone 3 while I was sitting there.

FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bets, Hero Raises, MP1 calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, MP1 calls, UTG calls. (22.5 SB)

I am a bit worried that I couldn't knock out MP1. This flop played exactly like the other hand with UTG where he had AJ and I had AK and an A flopped. UTG would also bet a flush draw this same way. Unfortunately, I KNOW at this point I am at least behind MP1, and most likely behind UTG and am happy to call down as the pot is so large.

TURN: (11.25 BB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG Bets, Hero calls, MP1 Raises, UTG 3-bets, HERO??

When is there enough cash in there to peel the river? I am going to assume it'd be capped on the turn. So that's 3 more BB's to win a pot of 23.25 BB's. The only hand we lose to if we spike is KK, and the flush if the spade comes.

All the action on the turn though, I don't think they are on flush draws. MP1 wouldn't have all of a sudden started betting a flush draw here. UTG wouldn't have 3-bet a flush draw I don't think. So I'm pretty sure my Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is good giving me 2 outs to the win HOPING nobody has KK.

Any help is appreciated, and sorry for the long post.