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Small Favorites
Does anybody feel like when you see a 55/45 "race", the favorite holds up, for what seems, more than 55% of the time? I've been playing poker for about 1 1/2 years and when i used to get it all-in with my TT vs. AK, i'd think, "Ok, it's virtually a coin flip, sure I have an edge, but it really isn't that big, pretty much a 50/50 shot." Now if I get in with TT vs. AKs, I really feel like i win more often than the 54% of the time that TT holds up. That 8-10% edge is much bigger than it seems. I swear, over the short run, TT holds up 60-65% of the time (yes, i know it doesn't). Anybody else share this feeling? If you do, do you know the mathematical reason why? Shoot, I need to take a stats class already.
AKs vs. TT: % for AKs, % for TT Winning 1x in a row: 46%, 54% Winning 2x in a row: 21.2%, 29.2% Winning 3x in a row: 9.73%, 15.7% Winning 4x in a row: 4.48%, 8.50% Winning 5x in a row: 2.06%, 4.59% |
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