Probability that Britian made the first moon landing.

[malorum]

This post concerns two important probability assesments.

Much debate has taken place regarding the plausibility of the US moon landings, and the general consensus is that this that these did indeed take place. However:
there is some evidence to suggest that A British lunar vehicle in fact made the first landing.
A popular UK newspaper (Daily Sport) some years ago published photographic evidence of the London Bus that had made it to the moon.
Since the average speed of a london Bus is in the region of 40 to 50 mph, it is suggested that the landing may well predate the US landings. The only complication is that Elvis was apparently found on the Bus, and there is thus the possibility either of a later dating or that a US citizen rather that the presumably British Driver, stepped onto the Lunar surface first.

The required probabilities are:
Given the available evidence.

1: what is the probability that a British Lunar Mission succesfully landed on the Moon prior to the US missions (assuming the latter actually happenned)

2: What is the probability that a Brit was the first man or woman to set foot on the moon.