Question on SSHE, Equity, How # of players affects decisions

J. Stew · #1 10-08-2005, 04:43 PM

Straight out of Hand Quizzes -- Flop Play SSHE

"You have 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the big blind. The player under the gun raises, and three players cold-call. You call (10.5 small bets). The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving you a gutshot and a flush draw. What should you do?

Answer: Check with the intention of raising a bet from early position." pg. 274-275 SSHE

Hypothesis: The number of players in the pot determines whether you should check-raise or check-call.

So you check with the intention of raising and believe you need to hit one of your 13 outs (four 5's and nine [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s) to win. The pf raiser bets, but all three cold-callers fold and it is back to you (11.5 small bets). You'll hit an out on the turn 28% (13/46) of the time but you have a chance to hit the river as well so you have a 29% chance (13/45) to hit the river if you don't hit the turn.

Question #1: How do these two percentages (28%, on the flop for the turn and 29%, on the turn for the river) combine to give you an estimate of how often your draw comes in when you are on the flop? I think this might be simple but I'm kinda stoopid. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Question #2: Say this percentage, that your draw will come in by the river, is 42%. Is this number your equity in the hand?

Back to the hand . . .
There are 11.5 small bets in the pot and the action is back to you, head up with pf raiser who bet the flop. If your equity is 42%, his must be around 58% barring the chance of a split pot.

Question #3: Assuming there is no chance the pf raiser is going to fold to a raise calling is the best option because you are getting 11.5-1 and you will make your draw 42% of the time or about one in 2.4 times or 2.4-1. You should call because your equity (42%) is less than his (58%)???

Now, say one of the pf cold-callers called the pf raiser's flop bet and the action is back to you (12.5 small bets) and you believe he has a pair of tens or a hand that you can beat if your draw comes in.

Question #4: Assuming your equity is above 1/3 or 33%, you should raise when the action is back to you because you have an edge in equity here, while when you were heads up with the pf raiser you did not???

Conclusion: In this hand, the addition of one player changed our flop action from a check-call to a check-raise.

Thanks for any input or swear words you guys can give.

Edit: Whoops I meant to post in Micros where I play, but any words of wisdom from you guys would be much appreciated.