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#18
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Okay - I'm convinced and am changing my mind on this one.
Yes....your logic is correct and everyday activities (such as driving) SHOULD be factored into the equation. If someone offered me $1-million and all I had to do was drive from Memphis to California to pick it up and then drive it back (with no other dangers involved) I would certainly take this bet...even though there is certainly some slim chance that I would be involved in a fatal car-wreck on the way. In fact, if the rules stipulated that i only had 40 hours to get there to pick it up and I had to drive solo I would STILL probably try to do this...of course, this would mean that I would get very little sleep and I would have to drive reasonably fast to get there. My chances of a fatal accident would obviously be greatly increased but I know that I would try to do this. Not too long ago I was making several long, late-night drives for several hours from one city to the next. I was driving extremely tired and it was quite difficult and a little bit dangerous some of those times. When I consider that on each of these drives I might have been at 1-in-a-million chances or even worse of being in a fatal car-wreck then I think I have to consider accepting $1-million at million-to-one odds (or something like that). So in order to take the hypothetical bet as originally mentioned, I do need to consider the apporpriate odds involved and there IS indeed some point at which I would take it. |
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