Ribbo and Me

[Wintermute]

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I think the play with 2 pair is thoughtful, but I still don't like it, mostly because it is paying 2-1 to get the pot. I think the odds are going to be terrible if there is a caller, and the odds are pretty good that one person has a low draw with clubs, and table image was not working in Ribbo's favor, in that I in particular-- and probably most others-- know that he is capable of making huge moves at pots on draws. (Admittedly this move will get him paid more often when he actually HAS the nuts, so it may be +EV from that standpoint, although I would want to have a better draw than he had to make this move)

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I completely disagree. This looks like a near-ideal spot to take a stab at the dry-ace bluff. You fired a weak-looking bet into a raised pot; he can push all his chips in and expect you to fold *most* of the time (range of hands), unless you are allergic to money. In addition, he has very STRONG draws to both high and low. Speaking of which, why is everyone calling 2nd nut low draw a weak low draw? It's not weak at all. Only the perfect hand--flush w/ A2--has Ribbo in bad shape here, and even then he's not drawing anywhere near dead (almost 20% equity here). Now, consider how this play looks if you're holding ONLY the Q-high flush, with no low draw. Or ONLY the low draw, but with a much weaker flush. The action easily could've progressed as it did in this hand, and his bet would pick up the pot frequently. When it didn't, he'd have much greater equity than 20%, perhaps even enough to make the move +EV. Also, what happens if he does turn up the Ax suited, and the turn and river brick for you? Playing this hand in the manner he did allows him to get maximum payoff in the situation where he does hold nut flush to your second-nut.

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This play falls into a category of play that I would call fancy, but dubious. In otherwords, the logic of the play is very advanced, but in the real world it is flawed.

Raising a flush board because you have the Ace, or raising because you have blocker cards to the hand you are afraid of usually means you are heavily discounting the information that the better in front of you is telling you, and that the fold that you are hoping for is probably NOT coming.

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The most significant determining characteristic for whether this dry-ace bluff is going to work is the quality of your opponent. I am not surprised that you underestimate the strength of that play given that you only play against the weakest players at $100 level (according to your blog). At the 200 level, even, against a number of opponents, it probably isn't that wise, but in this case Ribbo had STRONG BACKUP.

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Other than bad beats, this is probably the number 1 way for good players lose money.

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Yes, overestimating the quality of your opponent (so that you can attempt bluffs) is a costly mistake. I don't think it's number 1, however; I think number 1 way good players lose money is playing better players for higher stakes.