Was Villain Right?

[Octopus]

This call is easy. In fact, it is a good (if close) call even if he had just called on the flop.

Let's look at that case (where the pot is not bloated by our free card raise).

There are about 5.2 BB in the pot after expected rake. Let's make the following assumptions. If we make our straight, we will get two more bets on the river the majority of the time; let's say 80% (though I think that is low considering the times he has a set and we win more than 2). So 4/46 of the time, we win an average of 7 BB. If we pair (either card) we will just call a bet. One of the cards is good most of the time (let's say 90% this time). So 3/46 *90% we win 6.2BB and 3/46*110% we lose 2BB (10% for the "good" one not being good and 100% for catching the not good one and paying off). The remaining 36/46, we only lose this one bet on the turn since we fold the river.

Add it all up and we get a +EV of .047BB. Close, but positive. Add in the bloated pot from QTip's flop play and this call is very +EV.