Thoughts on Expected Value

[Lexander]

One thing I have noticed is a detailed explanation for the importance and necessity of Positive EV when making bets. As both a beginner and a player struggling to really learn the game, I do find that one area that I see very little discussion of what this issue is and why it is so important. I figure I would see what better players had to say.

The mathematical definition of Expectation is simple enough. Since we are dealing with discrete probabilities, we simply multiply the likelihood of an event (scaled from .00 to 1.00) times the result of that action. We add up the sum of all the results and we have our Expectation. (As a sidenote, I have wondered why the word Average is not used instead. Perhaps there is a difference, but I have heard Expectation and Mean interchanged regularly, and Mean and Average are also interchanged, so it would seem acceptable).

What I don't hear talked about much is that most Poker hands seem to have Negative Expected Value. I hear a lot of discussion of Positive EV, but very little discussion of this. More importantly, I hear very little discussion of something I am noticing. Some potentially good hands turn out to have very dangerous Negative EV for beginners and perhaps better players.

For example, I am a discovering to my amused surprise that in Low Limit games AA is currently an Negative EV play for me. Before all the better players look at me and laugh at my ignorance, I figure I should explain.

The biggest problem I have with AA in my game right now is that I don't fold it fast enough because I don't know I am beat. The second biggest problem is that losing with those AA causes a very subtle form of tilt to creep into my beginner game.

My experience with AA in tourney's has been good. It wins most of the time and often wins a big pot. In Low Limit, this hand is one of my worst performers. My results with KK have been much better (easier to toss, and beginning players tend to let you know they have hit their Ace).

The biggest problem is my play. I am turning what should be a Positive EV into a Negative EV. First, I am always putting in as many bets as possible on this hand. Second, I am usually only being called at the river when I am beat. Third, when I am not beat I am not getting enough action.

So, the 60% of the time or so this hand is beaten by somebody at the table I am putting 4-5BB's in. The 40% of the time I win with this hand I am winning about 6-7BB's. I know the textbook says I should be winning more. I hear better players say they manage it. Unfortunately, I am not one of those better players.

So, .6 times I am losing 4.5BB's and .4 times I am winning 6.5BB's.

The Expectation (EV) ends up at -2.7 + or 2.6, or about -0.1.

Now, I accept that perhaps I am just unlucky. But I think I am just playing poorly and producing this problem. I lose most of the time with AA and don't win enough when I do win.

But this -0.1BB would not be such a major issue if it didn't lead to tilt, which it most certainly starts to do. Most interestingly, this hand I fear right now. I actually hate seeing it in Limit since my mistakes with it are causing a problem. But as soon as the tilt hits, then the real disaster happens. I play a few too many Negative EV hands.

My first question to better players is how would you handle this situation? I personally think that I don't do myself many favors tossing AA right now. I figure I will accept that I need to learn to play this hand and reduce those losses and improve those wins.

But, for those other beginners reading this, I will say this. The real issue with most hands is that they have a Negative EV. That is, if you where to chart out the probability of any particular result and multiply it by how much you won or lost, the total result would be negative. And that would mean that the simply act of playing the hand costs you money. That simple idea, if properly understood and considered can do a great deal to reduce the loss.

A classic example I see with this is hands like A6o. It took me awhile to awaken to the understanding that this hand is trouble. You can lose your shirt playing it and you won't win enough to compensate. A lot of hands like K9o and KTo end up in roughly the same shape. They seem workable on the surface, but most of the time when you get in a big pot with somebody with these hands, you are on the losing end. I can see how better players will know how to win with these hands.

Anyhow, these are just some random thoughts. I am curious how better players would suggest dealing with hands such as JJ and QQ for beginners. The textbooks says these are good hands but I notice that most beginners (including myself) simply can't play these hands correctly enough to compensate for the losses.

- Lex