22 level 3, 55 hand

[schwza]

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This is a very clear limp preflop given your stack size and UTG's stack size.


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agreed.

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I am betting this flop because if it's checked to me

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i think that Ax checks to you very often here, especially a guy who likes to c/r. close to 100%.

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most of the time my villians do not have an ace and will fold. Plus I have outs if I don't.

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the fact that you have outs is the reason i'd check behind. i don't want to get c/r'ed by an A (or a whiff) here. i'd rather take the free card and see if i improve, or else try to play a small pot. if he hits an overcard, so be it.

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when UTG bets the river he's either trying to pick up the uncontested pot with air or he has a 2 or AAA. Thus he will not call a raise unless he beats us, so call.

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ugh. how could villain have a 2? based on the pre-flop, the only way would be a badly played 22/a2s. and if those are possible, no reason we're not seeing 33/44/a3s/a4s/a5s, all of which will pay off the river. worrying about AA is seeing monsters. villain limp-called, and has shown nothing to indicate AA.

the most likely hand to pay you off is something like AT that missed two c/r's and will now pay you off. fearing 2x or AA leaves too much money on the table.

hopefully you agree that AA or 2x is pretty rare. you think nothing else will pay off. so if you had 78 or some air, it's an easy push, right?