ICM Thoughts

[Unarmed]

DISCLAIMER: I'm not an ICM nerd.

I'm going to be talking about the ICM EV of an exact situation, static EV if you will. I'm not interested in talking about true overarching EV, the type that includes stuff like how pushing and winning makes me feel happy, which makes me play better, so I should include that impact in my calculations.

Anyway...

When calculating the ICM EV of a push, there are two value components:
1) The percentage of times everyone folds
2) The percentage of times you are called and win

I think we're all sort of aware of one side of this. Like, if I have KTs in the SB and 14BB, its a clear push by EV. However, I normally pass on it because I don't want to risk busting at that stage. Put another way, a ton of that situations EV is coming from 2) and with a decent stack, I don't really like to put myself at risk of busting.

I'm more interested in the other side of the equation. Say I'm a shortish stack 6 or 7 handed. Now I don't really mind busting, I'm way more interested in doubling up off someone. Therefore, when faced with an equal EV situation, say 74o in the SB, and KQs UTG (just assume you have calling ranges locked and the EV of the two is equal), I should NOT be indifferent between the two. I should be happier to take the KQs because a greater % of its EV comes from its ability to double through someone. I *think* this can be expanded to say that I'd rather take the KQs with 0.2% EV over the 74o and 0.3% EV, and if that's true perhaps I should be willing to take KQs and slight -EV for the chance to double through?

I guess what I'm trying to say is that there are two components of the ICM EV numbers we get when analyzing pushes, and that we should be aware of that, at the very least. Also, it is intirely possible that this post makes zero sense. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]