10/20 On the Edge

[DMBFan23]

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bet the river.

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I dont think I m good anywhere near 55% when called. I also dont see better hands folding and I open myself to a bluffraise. I doubt they are capable of it but you never know at 10/20.
Please explain why you wanna bet here.

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remember, when you are OUT of position, the 55% metric for river value bets does not apply.

basically you're comparing the EV of all your options for any decision. when you bet in position on the river, you are comparing the EV of betting to the EV of checking, which is 0. therefore, you have to be good 55% of the time to ensure you are a winner on that bet.

when you're out of position, you don't have that luxury...you can check fold, check call, check raise, and bet. let's assume we've determind that check raising is inferior to betting (there is material in HPFAP and TOP to help one think about this). there are still two other options:

1) we can check fold. EV 0.
2) we can check call. the EV of this will be determined by the opponent's hand range when he bets, and the size of the pot.
3) we can bet. the EV of this is determined by the hand range he calls with, the hand range he folds, and the size of the pot.

2 and 3 are very linked. against a very few opponents, the hands he will bet are so many that we actually make more by checking and letting him bluff, even with a strong hand. the more common opponent calls with more hands than he bets. and then some opponents are just weat tight bitches.

so we have to decide, if I check and he bets, should I call?

if the answer is no,
then decide whether you can bluff him (i.e., he is very weak and will only bet the nuts, so you can't call, but he will fold a lot too). if you can bluff him, bet. if not, check fold.

if the answer is yes,
then you have a profitable call according to his betting range and pot odds. now decide whether he bets with more hands than he calls with. if he does, then you should check and call. if instead he calls with more hands than he bets with, then you have a more favorable situation betting - you already had a profitable check call, and he will call with even MORE hands than that, so you should bet for 'value'. here value is relative...you are a winner COMPARED to check calling, and both options are better than check folding. notably in large pots, this can happen even when you are well below being a 55% favorite to win when called.

notice how complicated being out of position is compared to being in position, and I didn't even get into either you (when you are OOP) or your opponent (when you are in position) checkraising...