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The Theory of Top Set
This situation came up last night and, while weighing my options, I realized that I was working almost entirely off of experience and my reads on the other players in the pot. It dawned on me that I wasn't aware of any reasonable theoretical way to approach this type of problem. I'm wondering if there is some approach I am overlooking or is this just poker.
The 3/3 PL HE game at the Vic: It is tournament week so it is busy but it is a pretty typical Vic table, a mix of solid regulers, donators and nut peddlers. Three limpers to the sb who raises the pot. I have QQ in the bb and decide to smooth call. (Debate this if you like but it is not the point of the post.) All three limpers call for a pot of 90. I have about 650 behind and stack sizes of the others in the pot range from 450 to 1200. Flop is a dream: Q 7 3 rainbow. SB checks to me. I have the absolute best possible hand at the moment and there are only seven possible hands that can catch a card on the turn to beat me. Clearly, I'm a big favorite. So, what's the plan: (1) Bet out and hope for a caller or, in a perfect world, a raise? (2) Check planning to c/r? (3) Check planning to call with the idea of playing a big pot on a later street? I have played enough to have had an opinion about which option was best but it was based almost entirely on what I have seen happen in other hands in the past. I'm posting this here rather than in MHS because I am interested in any thoughts on how to analyze this hand from a theoretical perspective. Thanks in advance. edit: fixed confusing typo noted in first reply. |
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