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KQs 3 handed (also posted in Probability forum)
I am cross-posting this in the probabilities forum.
I folded KdQd from the big blind three-handed recently, mostly trying to finish in the money when we were 2 small stacks against one giant stack, and the button and SB went all in. Payout structure for the tournament was 3rd place gets his buy-in back, 2nd and 1st pay 40:60 respectively from what remains (20 person tournament). With a $10 buy-in, the difference between 3rd and 2nd was about $65. From my read on the button and the small blind I thought I would be up against an Ace and a pocket pair. I knew I had the chance to triple up, but I also thought that I would have to pair one of my cards and avoid an Ace to have a chance. Can anyone help me figure out the probabilities of this? Also, how do I factor in my flush draw--or how much should I have considered it when making my decision? I felt weak folding, and that's pretty much the way the feedback has gone, but if anyone wants to share their perspective on this, I'd appreciate it. Thanks in advance. PS: Turns out the button had an ace and the SB had pocket 7s, if that's relevant. Betting went this way: button calls, SB all-in, button calls out of turn, BB ends up folding. SB had slight chip advantage over BB. |
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