A fancy play I make against certian players. How stupid?

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely not! You're investing 5BB (3SB + 1SB + 1BB + 2BB) to win 4BB!
If it only works 30% of the time, your EV is:
(.3)(+4BB) + (.7)(-5BB) = 1.2BB - 3.5BB = -2.3BB
In order for you to break even, he must fold 55% of the time!

[/ QUOTE ]Oh crap. Thanks for setting me straight. The other poster said so and it didn't register. Yeah, now I see why this is a bad play. He may fold 30% of the time but not 55%. Thread over.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does he have to fold 55% of the time to make this a good play? Wouldn't that only be true if your only chance of winning the hand was to make him fold? J9 seems like a pretty good hand against a random hand. How about playing it preflop but only continuing on a favorable flop?

If so, is a preflop raise or a complete better?

On this hand you did not get a favorable flop. So check/fold looks good to me here.