TT - Big pot - Double paired board

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
But after thinking about it, I think his hand distribution is something like this:
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)
hands that fold - busted draws, Ax/Kx sometimes, JT, etc (53%)



[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't look at these at first, but these are definately wrong. Let's put pfr on a loose 3-betting range (being generous):
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/KJs

Of these we lose to:
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/99/AQ/KQ = 6+6+1+6+1+8+8 = 36 combos

We win against:
AK/AJ/KJs = 16+16+4 = 36 combos
Plus some of these hands should be folded before of the river or been played differantly.

Using this very loose range we're still only ahead 50% of the time. Sure, 18 of the combos we lose to will probably play this hand more aggressively before the river but many players would not have bet the turn with AK/AJ/KJs so we can say these factors cancel.

Probably it would be more appropriate to discount:

Of these we lose to:
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/99/AQ/KQ = 6+6+1+6+1+8+8 = 36 - 18/2 = 27 combos

We win against:
AK/AJ/KJs = 16+16+4 = 36/2 = 16 combos

Betting this river would be bad imo.