When Genuises Are Certain

[David Sklansky]

I want to precisely define my position on this matter.

First of all my definition of genuis is about the normal one except I don't rate spatial relations, musical ability, or the like as a big part of the assessment. I'm talking about analytical ability. The ability to EASILY get a Phd in subjects like physics, logic, economics, or maybe even law. Not just pure math ability.

My next contention is that such a genuis is a monster favorite to be right when he disagrees with a merely intelligent person in the genuis's chosen field. I doubt that is debatable.

My more debatable contention is that the genuis is a rather big favorite over a moderately intelligent person even when he disagrees about fields outside his expertise, and even if the questions have not yet been decided. AS LONG AS:

1. The genuis has studied the field almost as hard as the other guy (which automatically counts me out even if I otherwise qualified.)

2. The genuis is almost certain about his conclusions (which almost certainly means he DID study the subject)

3. The genuis is not one of those idiot savant, can't tie, his shoe types.

4. The subject has a degree of logical thinking involved with it and doesn't require a lot of artistic type talent.

If those four criteria are met, then if you were able to bet on who was right between a random genuis, and a random, kind of smart, person, I say you could certainly lay a big price on the genuis. Exactly how big depends on the subject. But religion definitely is one of them.