Over pair against a 2+2er

[MrWookie47]

Look at the board. Hero knew villain was a 2+2er for sure, and I think we can be sure that they both knew each other.

Villain 3bets preflop AA-TT, maybe 99, AKo/s, maybe AQs.
Hero caps preflop - AA-QQ, maybe JJ, AKs, maybe AKo. Villain knows this.

Villain check/raises the flop. 99 is out. AQs is out. AK is probably out.

Hero 3bets knowing this. Thus, he must think he's ahead of villain's range. AK is out, and 3betting QQ here would be pretty bad.

Villain bets the turn. Betting AK here would be utterly ridiculous. Villain has AA-TT. Thus, hero should only raise here with his own AA or JJ because otherwise he's not ahead of 55% of villains range. If the pot wasn't utterly huge, you could make a case for folding QQ, really, but the chace of villain acting irrationally with AK is signficant enough compared to the pot size to warrant calling down.

Villain calls the raise and checks the river. I can see a value bet with AA or JJ here, but not KK. The chance that villain has JJ or TT is somewhat diminished, but he might be getting fancy. You hope to beat QQ, and that's it. A scared AA is still a possibility. KK is a good check here, although I would have called down from the turn bet.

In the original hand, there are more hands that hero is beating with KK. He's ahead of TT, and because of villains flop 3bet, JJ is less likely. 99 was a small consideration. Thus, I can see a value bet with KK more.

Edit: Hell. Now I've just got to be able to do this at the tables.