Odds of a 100bb downswing?

[hemstock]

Assuming 85% of your decisions have a positive Expected Value (or the less negative one), what are the chances of a 100BB downswing happening? What about a 200bb downswing?

And how many hands are concidered a good sample size that you can tell your hands are going normal.

Over the last 3 days


That's 8 hands that have a positive expectation and are my biggest losers.

Also, is it weird that most of my game is playing to come back from a downswing. It's like I'm playing 4k hands to get to a point X slowly slowly, and then in the next 1k-2k hands I'm losing everything I've been builting all those 4k hands before so easily. My point is, I'm trying really hard to get to some point, but when a downswing hits, everything is collapsing very very fast. Why don't upswings happen at the same rate?

And one last question. Generally, what's the ratio between downswings and upswings? If you are playing for 10 days for example. In theory what would the ratio be for losing-winning days?