Online Poker : 75% of loosers

[MicroBob]

this doesn't matter...nor does the stat in poker-tracker that 40-45% of the players in your database with 100+ hands are winners (as the other poster mentioned).

You are going to get this 40% number in a -EV game if you keep it at 100 hands.
And obviously many players who are in the 100k+ hand range are sticking around because they are winners (and the losers had dropped out before then).


To prove the idea that the game can be -EV for EVERYONE yet show that 40% are winners after 100 hands I used blackjack as an example.

Imagine 1-million players in a gigantic casino all playing basic-strategy (not varying their bet...and not counting-cards or anything else).
They are all at approximately -1% EV.

After the first 10 hands: About 1/3 are up a little bit, about 1/3 are down a little bit, and about 1/3 are even-ish.

After 50 hands: 48% are up (including 5% who are way up) and 52% are down (including 5% who are way down)

After 150 hands: 44% are up and 56% are down.

After 500 hands: 35% are up and 65% are down.

After 2,000 hands: 20% are up and 80% are down.

After 10,000 hands: 10% are up and 90% are down.

etc etc....until you get to 1,000,000 hands are there's maybe 1 guy out of 1-million who is still a winner while EVERYBODY else is mostly WAY down.


If you were a casino-owner and looked at the example after only 10 hands you would say "geez....this game isn't going to make us very much money. We've dealt 10 hands to 1,000,000 million people and it's about 50/50."


For some reason that I can't fully articulte...1-million consecutive hands to 1 person is MUCH different than 1 hand each to 1-million people.
In the former, the 1 person will be broke 99.99% of the time after the 1-million hands (assuming still that it's a -EV game with a 1% disadvantage).
In the latter, the money will be much close to even after dealing 1 hand to 1-million people.