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Old 09-19-2005, 07:34 AM
ilya ilya is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Party Poker
Posts: 460
Default Re: clear fold, NOT because you figure to be behind on average

[ QUOTE ]
perhaps things have changed, but in my experience AJo, xxh, and 98 is definitely not the best case scenario at a 22.

btw I think this is an easy fold at 100 or 200.

As for the ROI part I think that merits an interesting discussion in itself (that I am in no way prepared or willing to get into), but I think in terms of hourly rate considerations it is more profitable to push here.

Of course, I have absolutely no math to back me up and am going on gut feeling, so I could be dead wrong and have something new to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's certainly possible that one or two of your opponents have weaker hands than the ones I've given, but I stand by my best-case-scenario judgment because all three of the hands given are behind Hero. If I instead put my opponents on 67, 32o, and 32o, Hero's win% is lower than in the scenario I gave.

I don't think hourly rate considerations apply here. Getting more tournaments in isn't gonna help you much if you play in a way that makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to make money on any given tournament.

Whenever you're tempted to make an "hourly-rate" play, you have to step back and consider the maximum ROI you could hope to achieve if the situation came up in every single tournament you played and you always made the play.
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