Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)

[DavidC]

I'm going to work out my own analysis and post this, to ensure that I made the correct decision here:

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (23 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, Hero???

Pot: 17bb

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The PF cold-caller is 18/11 after 228 hands. On the turn, I'm only afraid of 77 and 66 from him: not much, basically. I'm thinking he's got something closer to jj-88. The table's running pretty hot right now, so that could help his decision towards cold-calling a hand, although with a lag on the table perhaps going to three-bet, it's probably inadvisable for him to do that. If he has the hand range that I put him on, I would like to congradulate him for a great turn raise!

The preflop capper is unknown.

I'm going to be a douche here and say that his cap vs people three-betting him out-of-position range, in a multiway pot, is:

AK, AQs, AA-TT...

AK: 12
AQs: 3
AA: 3
KK: 3
QQ: 6
JJ: 6
TT: 6

My Expected Outs here: 2(12) + 6(3) + 0(3) + 3(3) + 3*6(6) + 0 (2) (just in case that cold-caller really does have quads, which would be really weird):

159 / 38 = ~4.1

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Arg, not enough odds to call.

Do you guys agree / disagree with this?

(In the actual hand I did call, and I was shown JJ and 99, so it was a good call if I could actually see their cards, but this leads me to believe that I should have folded. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

Edit: It would have been SO sweet to have AKs clubs here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]