Smack dab in the MIDDLE

[mrbaseball]

I usually don't post this kind of stuff but I'm semi-bored at work.

Philly +1.5 runs -137
Atlanta -118

I'm hoping for an Atlanta one run win obviously. The math goes like so. I am assuming a typical 27% chance of a one run game on a coinflipish type of matchup.

So I make the following assumptions:
Atlanta wins by one = 13.5% of the time
Atlanta wins by 2 or more = 38.5% of the time
Philly wins = 48% of the time
Ballpark figures but close enough I think (I have fair value at +-106 Atl). So this is how $100/$100 bet would work:
200(.135)= 27
-37(.385) = -14.25
-18(.48) = -8.65
So my expected return is $27-14.25-8.65 = $4.10

Not great but positive and these kinds of bets are low risk and high reward. I just love hitting the longshots!

Now resume football blathering [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]