Scalping opportunity gone bad, what would you do?

ctv1116 · #1 09-13-2005, 01:27 PM

Ok, so basically I misread a line on Hollywood, thinking I was betting AZ +1.5 when really I was betting AZ -1.5. Thus, I am now stuck in a -EV reverse middle, where I will lose $5200 if the Stl/Az is won by exactly one point or is tied, and will win $81 if the winning margin is 2 or greater. Given that the winning margin is exactly 1 4.3% of the time, the EV of this bet is -$148.70. If I just take the reverse of each of the bets I've just done, I am guaranteed to lose $225.67. If you were in my shoes would you take the risk of the reverse middle, or aceept the sure loss?

View Poll Results: Is calling the bet in the example a +EV play?
Yes, I can't show you the math however	3	25.00%
No and I can show you the math to prove it	2	16.67%
Yes and I can show you the math to prove it	1	8.33%
No, I can't show you the math either	6	50.00%
No but if change xy and/or z then it is +EV (Explain)	0	0%
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll