Hand Reading made the River Bet Easy

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A bet on the flop from a tight passive here indicates a pair very often. I think it's more likely to be a pair we beat (TT or possibly 88)

I doubt a villain with that profile bet out the flop with overcards and a backdoor flush draw.


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Fair enough. I doubt he has eights though. Say his hands are QQ, JJ or TT 90+% of the time and AK or AQ with a spade the rest. If so, then it depends on the probability he will fold QQ (low) or JJ (almost as low) versus the probability he has AK (probably not as low). I guess the bet has value, but it is not clear to me that it has a lot. (If he'll cap with queens then the value goes up, obviously, but it is not clear that he does.)