WCOOP Event 4 - 3 hands for review

[KdoubleK]

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kdoublek, the problem with your line is that this is how I might play a wide variety of hands. AJ, suiteds, X3. He could very easily be value-bettting here after letting the hero fire out all the bets he wanted to. I think the odds of a bluff are about equal to the odds of a boat - about 20% for each. But that means you've got a hand to value bet 60% of the time.

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You're right cardsharp, this is how you would play a wide variety of hands. But villain here is described as weak, tight, and passive. If he has AJ he's firing on this flop to protect his hand from any scare card that might fall. Passive players tend to limp with suited connectors preflop so I don't think his raise would indicate that. This is, however, how a passive player would play Axs. While I may have overestimated villain's chance of having the boat, I think you've overestimated his chance of making a play. Weak, tight, passive players don't make these kinds of bluffs on these boards. Nor do they raise here without the close to the nuts. If he has AJ, A3, or a smaller flush he's probably just calling. That being said, I'll admit that I would probably be too attached to the hand not to call the small river raise even though I'm sure I'm beat.

Getting back to hand # 1, I think a check miniraise on the flop is the best line. You have the best underpair and villain is capable of potting any underpair plus AK, AJ, and a flush draw. Any hand that beats you badly now is almost certainly jamming and you can fold. There are a whole bunch of hands you are ahead of that might just call a miniraise though. In that case you are probably way ahead and can figure out how to get the most chips on the turn. I think he would jam the flop with AKs and AJs too, but folding to these hands is a risk worth taking imo since you're not that far ahead of them.