Hand Reading, PP style

[freehat]

Ok so UTG min-raises UTG this could mean any pocket-pair or suited connectors, as a mixing play. MLG calls in the big blind which is pretty much everything but trash, , and really big hands AA-QQ, AK is he is aggressive and likely to re-raise with these hands especially with the other callers.

Ok so the flop checks through this really doesn't change much about MLG's hand as he would check with pretty much any hand to see the action. UTG failed to follow up with his pre-flop raise. What does this mean?

1. He probably doesn't have a set as most players would bet such a draw heavy flop, but there are many bad tourney players who love to slowplay and would check.

2. He has a pocket pair that is fearful to bet cause of the texture of the board with the A and many draws which is pretty likely.

3. A draw such as KQ, or clubs (clubs would be likely to bet, but a gutshot draw could be looking for a free card).

4. Any other crap that missed

The turn: UTG bets just under half the pot, well since everyone else showed weakness on the flop, UTG could be taking a stab with all of his missed hands on the flop, as well as deciding to bet his big hands and a turned set, or gutshot straight.

MLG- calls something like KQ, QJ, or a flush draw or maybe a weaker one pair hand as I think he would pop the turn with a better hand such as two-pair or a set or have the bet the turn in the first place to protect his hand. He could also be calling with air to bluff a scare card on the river such as K, T, heart or club.

River- UTG bets just under half pot again. I dont think he has a one pair hand as he would just check through. A set and straight could be inviting a call, and this could also be a missed draw.

MLG- Check-raises this play indicates either air or some two pair hand that MLG hit on the river and is now value betting. I don't think he is bluffing because this isn't really a scare card and there wouldn't be much reason for UTG to bet marginal showdownable hands on the river and he will call with his strong ones and just fold the crap. The reason MLG checks with two pair is to get money from missed draws, but he should probably bet as to get value from the many UTG hands that would check the river, but not bet the river.

What should the opponent call with: Straight, Set, two-pair, and fold any one pair hand. As MLG's range is 2 pair or a bluff, what percentages I'm not exactly sure, but the calling will be a function of these percentages.

That was fun to write, not sure how much of it makes sense, but you do realize how much harder poker is when you don't know anyone's hand.