Two Semi-Common Logical Fallicies: Continuation Bets

[Jman28]

1) Folded to me in the sb with xx. If I raise 3x the BB, the BB will call. If I bet pot-size the flop, he will fold over half the time, and raise the rest (I fold to a raise). Since I win an even money bluff over half the time, raising preflop with the intention to bluff the flop is a profitable play.

2) I raised preflop with AK. I missed the flop heads-up in position. It's checked to me. If there is a 55% chance I will win the pot with a pot-sized bet, I should make it. EDIT: I will be raised the other 45% and have to fold.

(Each probably has a few reasons why they are wrong. Assume pot-size bets are the only ones allowed.)

Discuss.