When the hand opponent *should* hold is obvious

[einbert]

These situations have been frustrating me lately. It occurs when I feel my hand is pretty well-defined to anyone who can read hands, and their hand is also extremely obvious. I just keep second guessing myself here, thinking that people are trying to represent a certain hand because they are getting very good odds on a bluff raise.

In this hand, the villian is a 50/30 LAG who is pretty reasonable after the flop (for a 50/30). I haven't seen him make a bluff raise on the river or at all, although I have made him seen semibluff type bets and raises including turn checkraises. I think it's safe to say he holds the obvious QT the vast majority of the time, but how often do you think this player is bluffing in this spot? Should I consider him capable of such a move and pay off here?
Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero ?????

In this hand the player is unknown, but seems loose and somewhat passive from the few hands I've seen. Again it is pretty obvious that the majority of the time, he has just made a flush. But how big is the other portion of the time? Is 15-1 enough to make a crying call here? Is it close?
Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Hero ????

Any insight on this kind of situation would be helpful. Thanks.