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Question about metagame considerations and future value
NOTE: I didn't actually play this hand. It's a hypothetical hand, and the purpose of this thread isn't necessarily to discuss specific decisions made by the Hero here.
5/10 6max 6 handed game. I'm on the button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It's folded to me and I raise. The SB folds and an unknown but seemingly loose and passive player calls in the BB. 2 players to the flop Flop: (4.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] SB checks, I bet, SB calls Turn: (3.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, I bet, SB calls River: (5.16BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB checks, I bet, SB checkraises, I call Final pot: 9.16BB Results: SB shows 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a failed bluff attempt on the river, and my pair of jacks takes down the pot. The first question is, what percentage of the time do you think I'm going to win the pot after the SB checkraises me on the river? Here is the big question. Now that I have the additional info that I have gained (relative to me folding to the river checkraise) how much is it going to benefit me in the future? How many hands are we going to play together, and how much more EV am I going to be able to squeeze out against him based solely on my knowledge of his hole cards and how he played them this hand that I wouldn't have gained if I had folded to the river checkraise? Thanks. |
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