AJs flops TPTK

[sean c]

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Ah, if we get it heads-up then our equity depends entirely on what the CO has (obviously, again). I imagine that we'd be ahead more often than behind though, so around 65% as a wild guess. The problem is that getting hu with a check-raise isn't realistic. You have two ep limpers, and if they're playing anything decent, the flop hit them squarely. With the tendency of semi-loose players to limp with hands like Q9, QT, KT, KJ, T9, not to mention suited hands, the only hands this flop missed entirely were the lower pocket-pairs.

If a safe turn card falls, e.g. 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I'm going to donk the turn because we can't count on the CO to bet again. What you're going to say is "Aha! But now the drawing hands are getting odds to call, and we're giving them better odds than if we had check-raised the flop." This is true, but we can't do anything about that if our equity on the flop was less than 25%. If a safe turn card does fall, then the chance of our equity giving us +EV on the turn bet is much better.

Edit: Actually, if we just called the flop and donked the turn, the odds we'd give our opponents really wouldn't be that much better than what they got from the flop cr because only 4 sb would've gone in on the flop.

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Bodhi these are all good points. You are correct about the flop check/raise 11.5:2 vs check/call turn donk 6.25:1 but would you agree that our villians need 6 pretty clean outs to call either flop check/raise or a turn donk bet profitably and may pick up enough outs on the turn to call both a bet on the flop and turn profitably and possibly out draw us on the river. I also think saying the flop hit eveyone squarely and that we have basically no fold equity on the flop is not entirely true.