Marginal holdings

[Buzz]

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Since your hand is roughly average, you will not do better or worse from a card perspective waiting.

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Greg - Well... you're as likely to do worse as better if you will be forced all-in on the very next hand, but if there are several hands before you have to go all in, you have several chances to get better cards. And in the meanwhile, you might move up a place or two in the standings.

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But from a stack perspective, you will do much better playing now, as a win will leave you with a bunch more chips then winning the next hand will.

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You’d like to have more opponents than just the big blind for your move to get as much leverage for your chips as possible. In other words you'd rather get two for one than one for one. The trouble with this is if you have more opponents, especially on the bubble in a tournament, they’re not likely to have random hands. Instead they’ll probably have better starting hands than KK69d is.

KK69d has a better chance of success raising against a wimpy blind who is holding random cards than coming in when other opponents with better starting hands have voluntarily entered the action.

If I run a simulation against two opponents, for example, I think I should at least give one of them an ace. I can either make it in the same suit as one of hero’s kings or not. Let's try it both ways. Here are the results:

hand...high...low...scoop...total
WXYZ....570...784...1519....2873
AXYZ....479..1249...2296....4025
KK69d..1032.....0...2070....3102
W, X, Y, and Z are random cards.
The A in AXYZ is in one of Hero's suits.

hand...high...low...scoop...total
WXYZ....513...873...1279....2665
AXYZ....530..1228...2286....4044
KK69d..1116.....0...2175....3291
W, X, Y, and Z are random cards.
The A in AXYZ is not in one of Hero's suits.

Not much difference. (Hero’s chances obviously are not quite as good if we give one of his two opponents the ace in one of Hero’s suits). In either event, Hero's chances drop to about one in three from the one in two chance Hero would have one-on-one.

Hero triples his stack size by beating two opponents, while he only doubles his stack size by beating one opponent - but his chances of winning are roughly cut from slightly better than one chance in two to slightly less than one chance in three. Put another way, Hero is roughly twice as likely to get knocked out against two opponents as against only one.

And it isn’t as though tripling his stack size would put Hero in much better shape than doubling it. Either way, with the continually escalating blinds, he’s going to be forced all-in again, and soon.

But the main reason I wouldn't voluntarily go all-in with KK96d is I think it's the wrong hand with which to make a move when you’re short stacked and on the bubble in a tournament.

Just my humble opinion.

Buzz