CardPlayer Quiz

[drewjustdrew]

From Cardplayer (link probably changes when new quiz is added.)

Question


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A $10-$20 game. You raise from middle position with the A-K after an early player limps. Two middle players call as well as the early limper. There is $95 in the pot and four players. The flop is: 9-7-3, leaving you with two big overcards. The early limper checks. You bet and one of the middle players calls. There is $115 in the pot and two players. The turn is the A, giving you top pair, top kicker. You bet and get raised. What do you do?
Answer


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Fold. Similar to many problems in this chapter, when you get raised on the turn, you are almost always beat when having one pair. (On occasion, you are up against a tricky player who likes to semi-bluff draws on the expensive street.) There is $175 in the pot and it costs you $20 to call. These are pot odds of 9-to-1. If your opponent is raising on aces-up, then the number of outs you have depends upon his second pair. With him having aces over nines, you have three outs (any king). With aces over sevens, you have six outs (any king or nine). With aces over treys, you have nine outs (any king, nine, or seven). So one might conclude that on average you have about six outs, which is a 7-to-1 shot, and therefore you have a call. However, if your opponent does have two pair, you do not know which two they are, and thus may lose additional money on the river. Furthermore, your opponent may have a set, in which case you are drawing dead. Since he cold-called your preflop raise, he is more likely to have done this with 9-9, 7-7, 3-3, or A-9 than some other holding.

Do people agree with this line? Is it kinda convenient to think that A-9 is one of his 4 most likely holdings here?